Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Local Revenue Is A Tough Sell For Radio...

Although local radio revenue will show a slight improvement when 2010 numbers are in, it's a tough climb back to 2007 sales levels. Neal Polachek, president of BIA/Kelsey believes that "2007 was sort of the watermark of the ad industry. Consumerism was rampant, and so everybody was spending money to drive consumers to their stores and brands. Then we hit the skids so to speak with the financial meltdown, and the new "normal" normal is the economy we have. I don't think we'll see it go back to 2007 levels, maybe ever." Polachek told Media Life, that "if you go back in history, the Depression never really ended until World War II, and that was like 16 years later. I think we've got at least three or four more years where the economy will be pretty much where it is today." ...

National inventory has gained while local inventory is crawling back. "Traditional categories are doing better at a national level - radio actually picked up some ground, but it's a very small portion of dollars. National could be up 50% and it wouldn't change the curve much because 90 to 95% of radio's revenue is local." Polachek says BIA/Kelsey's forecast "has the volume of advertising returning in maybe 2014 or 2015. So for dollars to get to 2008 levels could be another 3 or 4 years beyond that. Media dollars are being spent more effectively (so there's less to go around). If people rush to buy interactive media, the pricing of that will potentially go up as demand increases, and the advertisers will say radio may work for me again because the price point is more comparable to digital media but we don't think we'll see a return to that $156.3 billion (from 2008), maybe ever." ...

When asked if he foresees a time when local media will contain a majority of digital advertising, Polachek said "I think in 2014 we have it at 25% or so but all things being equal, I don't think digital the way it's currently defined will ever be 50% of spend." So according to Polachek, radio is in for a rough ride and it's not about to get easier any time soon...

10 Timeline Memories:
1.1927] Premiered on this date: "The Jazz Singer" becomes the first 'talkie' based on the short story "The Day of Atonement" by Sampson Raphaelson. Al Jolson stars...1959] "Pillow Talk" starring Doris Day and Rock Hudson. This is the first of 3 films starring the box office favorites...
2.1945] The "Billy Goat Curse": begins in Chicago when a Cub fan is refused admission to a Cubs World Series game because he had a goat with him. William "Billy Goat" Sianis, owner of a local tavern puts a curse on the Cubs. It works. Not only do the Cubs lose that WS but they would never win another one. There must have been a curse on the Cubbies earlier, too. The last WS they won was in 1908...
3.1956] Wiping out Polio: Dr. Albert Sabin discovers the oral polio vaccine, just about eradicating the disease forever...
4.1963] Getting out the broom: The Dodgers sweep the Yankees in the 60th World Series as Sandy Koufax wins 2 games and is voted series MVP...
5.1973] "The Yom Kippur War": erupts in the Middle East as Egypt and Syria attack Israel...
6.1976] Walk-off home run: The Yankees win the AL Pennant when Chris Chambliss hits a dramatic home run against Kansas City...
7.1978] Wedding Bells: Benny Andersson and Frida Lyngstad of ABBA rock down the aisle...1991] Larry Fortensky becomes victim #8 for Elizabeth Taylor...1996] Faith Hill and Tim McGraw become a duo...
8.1981] "Happy Trails": Egyptian President Anwar-el Sadat, 63, is assassinated by Islamic militants at a military rally in Cairo...1983] Terence Cardinal Cooke of New York succumbs to cancer at 62...1989] The legendary Bette Davis dies in France from cancer at 81...
9.1983] Crossing the Hudson: The New York Jets announce they are leaving Shea Stadium for the Meadowlands where they play their 1st game in NJ in 1984...
10.1996] That's debatable: Bob Dole and President Bill Clinton meet in their 1st debate in Hartford (CT) as a TV audience of 46.1 million viewers look on...

Music Memories:
Commentary: Microphone Technology & Dimensional Sound - A Symposium, will be presented by co-hosts Agnieszka Roginska & Jim Anderson of New York University and Audio Engineering Society NY Section Chair James G. Williamson. The presentation will begin with a Meet & Greet at 8:30 am at the Steinhart Center, James Dolan Recording Studio at NYU, 35 West 4th Street (6th floor). For more information about the Saturday, October 16, 2010 event, visit http://www.aes.org/sections/ny/ ...

"Happy Birthday...happy birthday": Elisabeth Shue (47), Tony Dungy (55), Kevin (REO) Cronin (59), Millie Small (64) and Britt Ekland (68)...

Timeline Countdown: MLB playoffs start today, 22 days until the first game of the World Series, 26 nights until Halloween & 32 days until the end of Daylight Savings Time...
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