Friday, December 31, 2010

Looking At The Year Ahead For Radio...

All the radio experts have made their predictions for 2011. Being experts, they know they're right. Since no one is right all the time and your guess is as good as mine, I'll give you mine. MediaPost says S&P Equity Research forecasts growth of 10% in ad revenue. Wrong - I'll take the under. Ten percent sounds a little high to me. S&P also predicts that the major purveyors of social media, namely Facebook, Twitter and Linkedin are "in no rush to become publicly traded entities" because they have plenty of cash. Wrong - one of the three will go public. A new Pew study shows that among people who pay for web content, the typical user spends about $10 a month for content. The high-end users pay about $47 month. While no prediction was made by Pew as to how high consumers will go to get their web (apps included) fix, my prediction is that the internet is today's cable TV. Consumers will pay up to $50 a month to get what they now can't live without...

There are all kinds of guesses as to what's ahead for radio regarding the FCC. Commlawcenter predicts that "The FCC has pretty much ceased processing indecency complaints, while it awaits guidance from the courts as to whether it can legally enforce the prohibition on broadcast indecency, and if so, how it will be allowed to do that." Finally, a prediction I can agree with. I don't think this FCC wants any part of indecency. They will let the courts rule on what's indecent. Many are predicting that both sides in the dispute over performance royalties will continue to negotiate and reach an agreement. I don't. My prediction is that the fight will go to Congress. With a new radio-friendly Congress in session, this doesn't bode well for the music industry...

While Sirius XM has in-car radio locked up, Pandora appears to be driving additional interest in online in-car radio, a recent Vision Critical survey found that 9% of U.S. drivers "streamed audio programs or podcasts on their smartphones through their car stereo system." Toyota will integrate Clear Channel's iheartradio mobile app into select models starting next year. Ford also announced that they would integrate Pandora into 2011 cars with its sync system. My prediction is that in-car listening of streamed audio programs or podcast via smartphones will grow from 9% to 11% or higher. There you have it - my radio predictions for 2011. Take it for what it's worth. My guess is as good as yours and you can bet on that...

10 Timeline Memories:
1.0404] Curtains: The last gladiator competition is held in Rome and taped for later use as a NBC-TV special (1/1)...
2.1863] Mine eyes have seen the glory: Abraham Lincoln signs the Emancipation Proclamation declaring that slaves in rebel states are free (1/1)…
3.1892] Debuted on this date: The Ellis Island Immigrant Station opens in New York Harbor (1/1)…
4.1898] I’ll take Manhattan: Manhattan, the Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island are consolidated into New York City (1/1)…
5.1902] Debuted on this date: The first 'Tournament of Roses', later renamed the 'Rose Bowl' collegiate football game is played in Pasadena (CA) (1/1)...1935] Charles Darrow patents the game of Monopoly (12/31)...
6.1943] Old Blue Eyes takes Manhattan: Times Square greets Frank Sinatra at the Paramount Theater. His career explodes after this appearance (12/31)….
7.1966] Curtains: The final episode of “The Adventures of Ozzie & Harriet” is filmed (1/1)...
8.1967] Equal but separate: The FCC starts requiring AM/FM combo stations to be at least 50 percent separate in programming (1/1). Lots of great stations will be born, including WRKO (in March, 1967). This audio captures the sad day in 1981 when the format changed...
9.1972] ‘Happy Trails’: Future Baseball Hall of Famer, Roberto Clemente dies on a mercy mission when the cargo plane he had chartered goes down in the Caribbean. Clemente, 38, was en route to helping victims of a Nicaraguan earthquake (12/31)...1985] Teen Idol Rick Nelson dies in a plane crash on his way to a New Year’s Eve concert in Dallas (12/31). Rick was one of the nicest people I had the pleasure of knowing…
10.1997] Another Kennedy tragedy: Michael Kennedy, 39-year old son of the late Robert Kennedy is killed in a skiing accident on Aspen Mountain (12/31)...

Music Memories:

Commentary:

Happy New Year. I hope 2011 will be your best year yet. Enjoy every minute of it. See you next year...

"Happy Birthday...happy birthday": (12/31) Joey McIntyre (38), Val Kilmer (51), Bebe Neuwirth (52), Donna Summer (62), Burton Cummings (63), Diane Von Furstenburg (65), Sir Ben Kingsley (67) & Sir Anthony Hopkins (73)...(1/1) Verne Troyer (42), Jon Corzine (64), Don (Father Guido Sarducci) Novello (68), Country Joe McDonald (69) & Frank Langella (73)...(1/2) Kate Bosworth (28), (Oh) Taye Diggs (38), Christy Turlington (42), Cuba Gooding Jr. (43), Tia Carrere (44), Lynn (Phillips) Brough (47), Jim Bakker (71) & Julius LaRosa (81)...

Timeline Countdown: Happy New Year, 8 days until the NFL Wildcard Playoffs, 15 days until the Divisional Playoffs, 16 days until MLK Day & 23 days until the NFL Conference Championships...


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