Publicly Mel Karmazin says he wants Howard Stern to stay. He says he's confident that Howard will re-up when his current contract ends at the end of the year. If it's just renegotiation smoke, it's understandable but if he really wants Howard to stay, maybe it's time to let Howard walk. Standard & Poor's analyst Tuna Amobi might have it right. This is what Amobi told Bloomberg Businessweek: "If he (Stern) leaves, it frees Sirius up, cost-wise, to add more talent. The threshold where they'd consider letting him go today is a lot lower than before. They can grow without him." While Amobi says 200,000 to 300,000 fans may drop the service if he departs, customer growth overall will continue and Sirius can build sales with the money it saves on Stern. Saving $100 to $200 million a year will do that and pay off the debt of several third-world nations as well. Stern's 5-year, $500 million contract includes his pay and his staff's pay. Stern also owns about $200 million worth of Sirius stock. Stern's contract accounts for more than a fourth of the company's total annual programming and content costs last year...
Sirius will probably add 1.1 million subscribers this year to the 18.8 million it had at the end of 2009, says Amobi. It may add another 1.4 million in 2011 and Stern no longer brings in significant numbers of new listeners Amobi adds. In a June 30 filing, Sirius said "we have no reason to believe that any such subscriber loss will be material to our business or financial condition taken as a whole." Susan Kevorkian, a program director at research firm IDC agrees with Amobi. "They'll (Sirius) have presumably more money at their disposal to experiment with new channels and see what resonates with their existing subscribers." Sirius is already working to lower programming costs as it negotiates with content providers, including Stern, the NFL and NASCAR. The costs are "expected to decrease as various agreements expire and are renewed or replaced on more cost-effective terms", the company said in their June filing...
While offering Stern lower pay and a shorter contract is an option, Howard has already said he may start a web-only program or offer one through a mobile application. While Howard has an enormous fan base, he is bleeding Sirius financially and the chances of any significant future growth in Stern listeners are not promising. If they're not listening to him now, where would a new fan base come from???
Timeline Memories:
1.1921] Premiered on this date: KDKA in Pittsburgh starts one of the first daily newscasts on U.S. radio...
2.1962] Blacked out: Black student James Meredith (a transfer student from Jackson State) is refused entrance to the University of Mississippi by Governor Ross R. Barnett. Meredith was later admitted by court order and graduated from "Ol' Miss" in 1963...
3.1972] Get a whiff of that: Police find cannabis growing on the farm of Paul and Linda McCartney. Paul says it must of been the birds that dropped the seeds. Well they were flying high...
4.1973] "Happy Trails": 30-year old singer Jim Croce is killed in a small plane crash in Louisiana. Croce was on his way to a concert in Sherman (TX)...
5.1973] The Battle of The Sexes: Billie Jean King, 30, beats Bobby Riggs, 55, in a grudge tennis match at the Houston Astrodome. King whips Riggs in straight sets...
6.1976] Just a Love Machine: Playboy releases the Jimmy Carter interview in which he's quoted as saying, "I've looked at a lot of women with lust. I've committed adultery in my heart many times." Americans by the millions avoid the imagery...
7.1982] NFL hits the bricks: NFL players begin a 57-day strike, the first in-season strike in NFL history. Players hit the bricks tomorrow. The season is reduced to a 9-game schedule, instead of 16 and a special playoff tournament is used prior to the Super Bowl. The Schmoozer finally gets the story in...
8.1984] Beirut blowup: A suicide car bomber attacks the U.S. Embassy annex in North Beirut, killing 22 people...
9.1998] 'The Streak' (boogety boogety) ends: After playing in a record 2,632 consecutive games over 16 seasons, Cal Ripken Jr. of the Orioles sits out a game...
10.2001] Color-coded: President Bush addresses a joint session of Congress regarding the 911 attacks and names Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge to head up the new Office of Homeland Security. Ridge wears an orange tie to match his code Orange shirt but brings a red shirt and tie, just in case...
Music Memories:
- 1964] Curtains: The Beatles wrap up their 1st U.S. tour with a date at the New York Paramount in front of 3,682 screaming 'Beatlemaniacs'...1971] Peter Frampton leaves Humble Pie to pursue a solo career...
- 1975] Released on this date: "Born To Run" - Bruce Springsteen...
Commentary...
Make plans now for the Tampa Bay Radio Reunion, Saturday, November 6, 2010. RSVP to Sandy Hall at swoodworth@embargmail.com or call 813-205-5247. Sandy needs a headcount for the reunion. Tedd Webb promises that "if you missed it last year, you missed a good one, so pass along the info and come swap lies and have a few brews." The reunion starts at 2 pm...
"Happy Birthday...happy birthday":
Jayson Bay (32), Gunnar and Matthew Nelson (43), Kristen Johnston (43), Deborah Roberts (50), Red Sox owner John W. Henry (61), Sophia Loren (76), Anne Meara (81) and Gogi Grant (86)...
Timeline Countdown: 3 days until autumn arrives, 16 days until the MLB playoffs, 38 days until the World Series opener & 41 nights until Halloween...
