Analysts Agree Radio Is Up In 2011...

Radio gets good news from just about all the analysts - 2011 will follow 2010 on the positive side. For the first time since 2006, radio will post positive growth not only this year but the trend is likely to continue in 2011. According to Mediaweek, forecasts range from 0.6% (Magna Global) to 4.4% (Veronis Suhler Stevenson). If you add predictions from PwC, SNL Kagan, BIA/Kelsey & Wells Fargo, that's just about a 3% increase average for 2011. Radio will take it. It's only a small fraction of the revenue but radio's digital platforms will continue to outpace traditional radio next year, up 17%, says BIA/Kelsey. Through the first half of this year, national spot was up 17% to $1.3 billion according to the Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB). Local's performance (about 80% of radio's total take) was up 3% to $5.5 billion in the first half of 2010. Despite the good news, radio still has quite a way to go to get back to 2006 numbers...

Any growth is good after the nearly 20% drop in 2009, but 2010 and 2011 won't come close to making up the several billion lost since 2006 when radio peaked. None of the analysts expect radio to reach that point until some time after 2014. Stu Olds, president of Katz Media, remains optimistic the market will be up in the midsingle digits, but it might be better. "There are still a lot of things that are unsettled." ...

Leo Kivijarv, vp of research for VSS has his own theory. "Radio historically has been a strong performer out of a recession because it's cheap to advertise and easy to get on air. Some of those dynamics are still in place. When national advertisers spend, local advertisers feel better about spending, so that should be better." Spenders will come from seven categories (retail, auto, finance (insurance), entertainment, telecom, consumer products and professional services). Those categories says Stu Olds, "represent 80% to 87% of our business (and they are up)." A trend he expects will continue...

10 Timeline Memories:
1.1964] Warren wrap: The Warren Commission issues a report on the assassination of President John F. Kennedy concluding that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone...
2.1972] Dropping the puck: The 1st hockey game is played at the brand new Nassau Coliseum. In a pre-season affair, the Rangers beat the Islanders 6-4. We don't have video on that but what about Islanders TV...
3.1973] Special K: With a strikeout of Minnesota's Rich Reese, Nolan Ryan breaks the Sandy Koufax record for K's in a season with his 383rd...
4.1973] What's your name?: Carlos Santana, a disciple of Sri Chinmoy, changes his name to Devadip, begging the question, was it Devadip Santana or Santana Devadip??? Hare Krishna...
5.1990] Supes are in: The Senate Judiciary Committee approves the nomination of David H. Souter. One year later, same date, the Committee is deadlocked on Clarence Thomas but he eventually makes it...
6.1996] Ptooey: Orioles All-Star second-baseman Roberto Alomar spits on umpire John Hirschbeck during an argument. The two will become friends eventually after Alomar apologizes...
7.1998] Tainted record: Mark McGwire of the Cardinals sets the all-time home run record for a season when he hits numbers 69 and 70. That was not Tang he started his day with...
8.1999] Stadium de-clawed: Tiger Stadium closes after 87 years as home of baseball's Detroit Tigers...
9.2004] Spector charged: Phil Spector is charged with murder in the shooting death of Lana Clarkson at his mansion in 2003. In 2007 there was a mistrial but in 2009 Spector was convicted and sentenced to 19 years to life. He is serving that sentence now...
10.2005]Gotcha: Army reservist Lynndie England is sentenced to 3 years behind bars for her role in the Abu Ghraib prison scandal...

Music Memories:

• 1963] Number One on this date: "Blue Velvet" - Bobby Vinton...1973] "We're An American Band" - Grand Funk...
• 1964] Premiered on this date: The Beach Boys make their 1st appearance on "The Ed Sullivan Show" singing "I Get Around". This appearance is from another show...

Commentary...
The 2010 Giants of Broadcasting will be honored at a luncheon at the Manhattan Ballroom in the Grand Hyatt Hotel on Wednesday, October 6, 2010 at 11:30am. For tickets, tables and tribute ads, contact Ms. Jessica Wolin, 212-685-4233 or at jessicawolin@hotmail.com This year's honorees are: Dick Clark, Norman Corwin, Sam Donaldson, Edward O. Fritts, Hal Jackson, Art Linkletter, Rue McClanahan, Agnes Nixon, Daniel Schorr, Lesley Stahl & David Wolper...

"Happy Birthday...happy birthday":
Avril Lavigne (26), Gwyneth Paltrow (38), Shaun Cassidy (52), Meatloaf aka Marvin Lee Aday (63), Randy Bachman (67), Don Cornelius (74), Wilford Brimley (76), Jayne Meadows (90), Johnny Pesky (91) and Zacherle aka John Zacherley (92)...

Timeline Countdown: 9 days until the MLB playoffs begin, 31 days until the World Series begins and 35 nights until Halloween...