(Weekend Edtion)
Still another advertising forecast for radio's growth has been adjusted downward. Could we be seeing a trend developing? Barclays Captial is forecasting radio revenue will grow this year by 6.8% instead of the previously predicted 7.4%. It's just a fractional shift but it translates into tens of millions of fewer revenue dollars. "Recent economic data has driven a more conservative consensus view" says analyst Anthony DeClemente in his report to clients. DeClemente adds that consumer confidence fell in July to its lowest level since February. He notes the strong correlation with advertising spending. "The U.S. economic recovery has lost some of its initial momentum." Most forecasters have put their forecast between 5% and 7% but DiClemente lowered his radio forecast by 0.6% and his outlook (6.8%) remains among the most bullish for the industry. He also lowered his outlook on magazines, newspapers, outdoor and Yellow Pages but upped his growth figures for broadcast television, cable TV and the internet and he's not alone in predicting growth for the internet...
SNL Kagan recently noted that digital radio ad revenue (including internet, mobile and interactive) is growing quickly but is still a small percentage of total radio revenues. Streaming and mobile applications are essential for continual growth. According to SNL Kagan, radio's digital revenue will double, from $552 million this year to $1 billion in 2015. That would account for 5.3% of radio's total revenue, up from 3.2% this year. Mobile is being viewed as "the next big thing" by online broadcasters. Smartphone owners - now 120 million and growing, are expected to reach 221 million by 2015. "The advent of mobile has grown the industry and transformed the business model" says SNL Kagan associate director Robin Flynn. Advertisers are paying a premium for targeted in-stream audio ads...
While radio growth is slower than expected, there is growth and DiClemente believes the strengthening automobile business bodes well for radio and other media. He also expects political spending to help lift the third quarter too, although most of those dollars will be funneled to local television. What radio has to focus on is that how ever 2010 finishes, it beats last year...
10 Timeline Memories:
1.1956] Our motto is born: By order of Congress and approved by President Dwight D. Eisenhower, "In God We Trust" becomes our national motto (7/30)...
2.1965] Medicaring: President Lyndon B. Johnson signs into law, the Social Security Act, establishing Medicare and Medicaid (7/30)...
3.1966] Tower Horror: Charles Joseph Whitman, 25, climbs the University of Texas tower in Austin and starts shooting. Before he's through, 15 lay dead, 31 wounded. Whitman was gunned down by Austin police (8/1)...
4.1973] Where were you in 62?: Better yet, where were you on August 1st when "American Graffiti" premiered? The movie makes stars of Harrison Ford and Richard Dreyfuss, enhances the careers of Ron Howard, Cindy Williams and Wolfman Jack. Suzanne Somers debuts as the blond in the T-Bird (8/1)...
5.1975] Poof: Former Teamster Union President Jimmy Hoffa disappears in suburban Detroit. Although presumed dead, his remains are never found (7/30)...
6.1976] Real Golden Gloves: The U.S. picks up 5 gold medals in boxing at the Montreal Olympics. Sugar Ray Leonard, Michael Spinks, Leon Spinks, Howard Davis and Leo Randolph are the winners of the gold awards. Sugar Ray and Leon Spinks will become pro-boxing champions (7/31)...
7.1995] Sprouting mouse ears: The Walt Disney Co. agrees to buy Capital Cities - ABC Inc. for $15 billion (7/31) They will later buy Marvel...
8.2000] Wedding Bells: Jennifer Aniston and Brad Pitt walk down the aisle. They will divorce in 2005 (7/30)...
9.2003] The last Beetle: In Mexico the last 'old style' Volkswagen Beetle rolls off the assembly line (7/30). Sprechen Deutsch???
10.2005] "Happy Trails": The rock journalist who introduced Bob Dylan to the Beatles, Al Aronowitz passes away from cancer at 77 (8/1)...
Music Memories:
•1960] Released on this date: "The Twist" - Chubby Checker (8/1). The single will top the charts for one week on September 19th. Two years later, when it's re-released it tops the charts again on January 13, 1962 for two weeks...1971]: "Bangladesh" - George Harrison (7/30) (See: 1971] Live from Madison Square Garden: for video...
•1966] #1 on this date: "Yesterday...and Today" LP (7/30) - Beatles...
•1968] Recording finished on this date: "Hey Jude" is completed by the Beatles at Trident Studios in London (7/31)...
•1969] Pop goes the AC Festival: 110,000 attend the 3-day Atlantic City Pop Festival held at AC Race Course (Sorry - the video has no audio). The star-studded lineup includes: Janis Joplin, CSNY, Joni Mitchell, Jefferson Airplane, the Moody Blues, Three Dog Night, Canned Heat and others (8/1)...
•1971] Live from Madison Square Garden: "The Concert for Bangla Desh" starring George Harrison, Eric Clapton, Ravi Shankar, Bob Dylan, Billy Preston, Leon Russell, Badfinger and more (8/1)...
"Happy Birthday...happy birthday": (7/30) Hilary Swank (36), Lisa Kudrow (47), Laurence Fishburne (49), Anita Hill (54), Delta Burke (54), California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (63), Paul Anka (69), Peter Bogdanovich (71) and Edd "Kookie" Byrnes (77)...(7/31) J.K. Rowling (45), Wesley Snipes (48), Evonne Goolagong (59), Gary Lewis (65), William Weld (65), Sherry Lansing (66), Geraldine Chaplin (66), Lobo aka Roland Kent Lavoie (67) and Robert Morgenthau (91)...(8/1) Tempestt Bledsoe (37), Alfonse D'Amato (73), 'Ziggy' cartoonist Tom Wilson (79) and Geoffrey Holder (80)...
Timeline Countdown: 9 days until Pro Football's HOF induction & first pre-season game, 38 days until Labor Day and 41 days until the NFL opener (Minn. at New Orleans)...
